We know the Keystone XL isn’t dead. But the project’s delay will hit TransCanada hard, reportedly costing a million dollars a day. Republicans are apparently concerned about the Canadian pipeline company, and they’re doing their darnedest to help out.

If you want to force something through Congress that wouldn’t get passed otherwise, you staple it to a “must-pass” bill. The latest must-pass is the extension of the payroll tax cut; the toxic rider (and I mean that literally) is the Keystone XL. What does the oil pipeline have to do with taxes? Who cares? It would have been approved already if it weren’t for those meddling kids and their stupid aquifer.

Now Obama has already said, “Any effort to tie Keystone to the payroll tax cut, I will reject.” So that’s something. Exactly how much is hard to say.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell accused the President of “posturing” and claimed that some labor unions support Keystone XL, making it harder for Obama to reject the project. And the number-two Senate Republican has said the Senate must vote on the bill that comes from the House, KXL and all–there will be no further negotiation. For his part, Senator Reid, the chief Democrat, insisted a bill tied to the oil pipeline would be dead on arrival.

Incidentally, Senator McConnell is Congress’s fifth-biggest receiver of fossil fuel money, landing $1,193,508 since 1999. His number-three donor is Koch Industries, which stands to profit handsomely from the Keystone XL.

Many of Big Oil’s cronies America’s representatives will tell you that the Keystone XL will create thousands of jobs and enhance our national security. But as I’ve said before, the Keystone XL jobs claims you’ve heard are hugely exaggerated (no surprise since they came from TransCanada). Actually, even the pipeline company has admitted that permanent Keystone XL jobs would be in hundreds–”certainly not in the thousands.” And the energy security argument is based on a huge misconception.

It’s pretty simple. The Canadian oil industry needs to build the pipeline so it can sell more oil to Europe and Asia. That’s why much of the oil carried by KXL would be exported, doing nothing to cut our “unfriendly” oil imports. In fact, the pipeline would likely increase gas prices in several states, since the crude would bypass Midwest refineries. (You can read more Keystone XL facts and myths here.)

UPDATE: The State Department indicated Monday it would not approve the pipeline on an “arbitrary deadline:”

Should Congress impose an arbitrary deadline for the permit decision, its actions would not only compromise the process, it would prohibit the Department from acting consistently with National Environmental Policy Act requirements. In the absence of properly completing the process, the Department would be unable to make a determination to issue a permit for this project.

UPDATE 12/16: Having agreed to keep the government running (thoughtful of them), Congress is now negotiating the payroll tax cut–and the KXL provision is still being considered. Mitch McConnell, in fact, said, “I will not be able to support the package that doesn’t include the pipeline.”

Senators are reportedly talking about “holiday spirit”– meaning they would like to go home for the year this weekend. The new attitude seems to be encouraging compromise on the KXL wording. According to The Hill, lawmakers are optimistic that they will “reach a deal in the next day or two,” and the KXL rider has the support of several Democrats.

UPDATE 12/17: The Senate has passed the payroll tax cut extension with the Keystone XL provision, and Obama has signaled his approval. By signing the bill, he will, of course, break his promise to veto any legislation involving Keystone. However, the dreaded “provision” does not actually force an approval of the pipeline; it just requires the Administration to make a decision. Some sources say the Republicans’ trick may actually backfire, since State cannot conduct its environmental review in sixty days. If that proves to be the case, Obama will have made a shrewd political decision, and Congress’s rider could be a boon for Keystone opponents.

Nevertheless, we have no guarantee that Obama will reject the pipeline. Those of us who protested Keystone XL in the last few months have to keep up the pressure now, more than ever before.

And no matter how this latest escapade turns out, the determination of Big Oil’s representatives should remind us that the Keystone XL fight is far from over.